Catastrophe and Risk Solutions

Verisk Wildfire Model for the United States

The first wildfire catastrophe model to complete California’s Pre-Application Required Information Determination (PRID) process. Verisk delivers a forward-looking wildfire risk view for ratemaking, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Wildfire risk has outpaced historical models

Wildfire seasons now stretch nearly year-round across the western U.S. Heat, drought, and shifting precipitation have pushed losses beyond historical patterns. California's Sustainable Insurance Strategy regulatory requirements support the use of forward-looking probabilistic models rather than historical averages in rate filings. To file with confidence, insurers need a wildfire catastrophe model built for today’s environment and recognized by regulators.

Distinct fires and 70 million+ events captured across 100,000 simulation years in our stochastic event catalog

Occupancy and construction classes with vulnerability damage functions

Model and fuel layer resolution

Wildfire risk modeling for today’s challenges

The model combines advanced fire behavior physics, detailed fuel data, and wildland-urban interface (WUI) conflagration dynamics to represent wildfire risk for insurers, reinsurers, and exposure managers.

Empowering resilience through model transparency

Following public review, the Verisk Wildfire model for the U.S. became the first to successfully complete California's PRID process, and it’s approved for use in Nevada rate filings. Reviews have validated its scientifically grounded and actuarially defensible framework, helping the industry confidently expand wildfire coverage.

Accumulation management and portfolio diagnostics

Granular event loss tables and exceedance probability curves help portfolio managers identify accumulation hotspots, set exposure limits by geography, and stress-test against tail scenarios, including the correlated, multicounty events such as the 2025 LA wildfires.

Current building codes and construction standards

The model reflects updated construction practices and code adoption, including post-2018 California wildfire building code changes, delivering more accurate loss estimates across both existing and new building stock.

Forward-looking probabilistic modeling

Rather than relying on historical fire perimeters alone, the model reflects the near-present climate, including extended drought cycles and altered precipitation, to support California rate filings under the Sustainable Insurance Strategy.

WUI conflagration modeling

Simulations treat structures as fuel and model how a wildland fire becomes a full urban conflagration, capturing the catastrophic loss scenarios that drive the largest insurance claims.

Advancing insurance resilience: a historic milestone for California insurance

Built on decades of wildfire science, engineering, and climate data, the Verisk Wildfire Model for the U.S. provides a forward-looking view of risk to better price and manage wildfire exposure. It was evaluated through the California Department of Insurance (CDI) PRID process, part of the state’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy.

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2638050 Wildfire Landing Page Advancing Insurance

Damage functions for 215 occupancy and construction classes

The vulnerability module differentiates loss across residential, commercial, and mixed-use portfolios. Damage functions incorporate fire-resistant materials, vent protection, and building age, enabling underwriting differentiation and pricing precision.

105 construction classes

From light-frame residential to masonry commercial, each calibrated to observed loss data

110 occupancy classes

From single-family residential to large commercial, supporting accurate loss estimation across all policy lines

Mitigation-ready

Fire-resistant material credits for mitigation features, enabling accurate pricing for hardened properties including the IBHS Prepared Home and Prepared Home Plus designations

From fire science to insurance resilience

See how the Verisk Wildfire Model for the United States translates fire physics into the insights insurers need to strengthen resilience.

Wildfire risk modeling — frequently asked questions

Questions insurers, reinsurers, brokers, cat modelers, and regulators ask most often about the Verisk Wildfire model and California’s regulatory framework.

What is the Verisk Wildfire model for the U.S.?

This probabilistic wildfire catastrophe model covers the 13 westernmost U.S. states. It models wildfire behavior in both wildland and urban areas, treats structures as fuel to capture WUI conflagration scenarios, and provides a comprehensive smoke loss assessment. Developed by the Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions team, it’s available in Touchstone, Touchstone Re, and Verisk Synergy Studio.

Has the model completed California’s PRID review process?

Yes. The Verisk Wildfire model became the first wildfire catastrophe model to complete California’s PRID on July 24, 2025. The CDI began accepting rate applications from insurers using the model on that date.

Can insurers use this model in California rate filings?

Yes. Following PRID completion, insurers operating in California can use the Verisk Wildfire model to support rate applications submitted to the CDI. In exchange, carriers must commit to writing and maintaining homeowners and commercial policies covering at least 85% of their statewide market share in wildfire-distressed areas of California.

What is California’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, and why does it matter for cat modelers? How has it changed the rules for ratemaking in California?

The Sustainable Insurance Strategy (SIS) is a regulatory reform program launched in 2023 to address the state’s homeowners insurance crisis. A central element of the SIS permits insurers to use approved probabilistic wildfire catastrophe models in their rate filings for the first time. Before the SIS, California insurers could only price wildfire risk using historical loss data, a constraint that contributed to widespread nonrenewals and insurer withdrawals. The PRID process is the mechanism by which the CDI reviews and approves specific models for use under the SIS.

What states have approved the Verisk Wildfire model for the U.S. for ratemaking?

The model covers the 13 westernmost U.S. states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Designed for insurers, reinsurers, brokers, and risk managers, the model is approved for use in rate filings in Nevada and has a California PRID.

What platforms does the Verisk Wildfire model run on?

The model runs on Touchstone, Touchstone Re, and Verisk Synergy Studio, which support regulatory reporting workflows.

Related resources

Insurer Exposure Summary Template

Insurers will summarize their exposure data to help the CDI understand the user inputs.

Download the template

Documentation

Required Model Information

Comprehensive document on the data and science employed by the model and how the user interacts with the model.

Download the documentation

Documentation

Catastrophe and Risk Solutions Client Portal

Access client-confidential downloads, training, and documentation for Verisk's Catastrophe and Risk Solutions model, software, and service offerings.

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New to Catastrophe Modeling? Start Here.

New to catastrophe modeling? Learn what it is, how insurers use it, and how direct model access can strengthen underwriting, portfolio, and reinsurance decisions.

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