Research Publications from the Extreme Event Solutions team

Verisk Extreme Event Models are developed by experts constantly innovating and driving discovery. Learn more about their groundbreaking work.

Tropical Cyclone

Below are papers that address tropical cyclone concerns

A Framework for the Probabilistic Quantification of the Resilience of Communities to Hurricane Winds

Abdelhady, Ahmed U., Seymour M. J. Spence, and Jason McCormick

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A Methodology for Estimating Typhoon Losses to Building Environment in Japan

Kafali, C., and V. K. Jain

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A Resilience-Based Assessment of the Performance of Residential Communities Subject to Hurricane Hazard

Abdelhady, Ahmed U., Seymour M. J. Spence, and Jason McCormick

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An Investigation into Aggregate vs. Occurrence Losses for European Extra-Tropical Cyclones

Latchman, S., S. Higgs, and B. Evans

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Community Support and Transition of Research to Operations for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Bernardet, L., V. Tallapragada, S. Bao, S. Trahan, Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, M. Tong, M. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, L. Carson, R. Yablonsky, E. Uhlhorn, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, T. Marchok, B. Kuo, and R. Gall

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Cyclone Risk from Wind, Flood and Storm Surge Perils in Australia: A Comprehensive Model

Butler, K., C. Kafali, and V. Jain

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Description and Analysis of the Ocean Component of NOAA’s Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF)

Yablonsky, Richard M., Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Vijay Tallapragada, Dmitry Sheinin, and Ligia Bernardet

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Impact of a Warm Ocean Eddy’s Circulation on Hurricane-Induced Sea Surface Cooling with Implications for Hurricane Intensity

Yablonsky, Richard M., and Isaac Ginis

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Improving the Ocean Initialization of Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Models Using Feature-Based Data Assimilation

Yablonsky, Richard M., and Isaac Ginis

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Insured Loss Estimation from Wind and Storm Surge for a Re–Occurrence of Typhoon Vera

Sousounis, P. J., and C. Kafali

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Limitation of One-Dimensional Ocean Models for Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Model Forecasts

Yablonsky, Richard M., and Isaac Ginis

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Ocean Modeling with Flexible Initialization for Improved Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Model Prediction

Yablonsky, Richard M.,Isaac Ginis, and Biju Thomas

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On the Relationship between North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk

Dailey, P. S., G. Zuba,G. Ljung, I. M. Dima, and J. Guin

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Probability of Hurricane Intensification and United States Hurricane Landfall under Conditions of Elevated Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Dailey, P. S., G. Ljung,G. Zuba, and J. Guin

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Realizing Hurricane Resilient Communities through Distributed Computing

Abdelhady, Ahmed U., Seymour M. J. Spence, and Jason McCormick

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Risk and fragility assessment of residential wooden buildings subject to hurricane winds

Abdelhady, Ahmed U., Seymour M. J. Spence, and Jason McCormick

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Simulation of Rain Penetration and Associated Damage in Buildings within a Hurricane Vulnerability Model

Johnson, Timothy, Jean-Paul Pinelli, Thomas Baheru, Arindam Gan Chowdhury, Johann Weekes, and Kurt Gurley

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The Impact of Temporal and Spatial Variation in Building Codes on the Hurricane Wind Vulnerability of Residential Single Family Homes

Sarah Bobby, Tim Johnson, Bahareh Kordi, Farid Moghim, and Karthik Ramanathan

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The Importance of the Precipitation Mass Sink in Tropical Cyclones and Other Heavily Precipitating Systems

Lackmann, Gary M.,and Richard M. Yablonsky

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The Role of Tropical Cyclone Induced Flooding in Economic and Insurance Losses

Kafali, C., and V. Jain

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Uncertainty Quantification for a Climatology of the Frequency and Spatial Distribution of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.

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Earthquake

Below are papers that address earthquake concerns

A Study on the Uncertainties in Earthquake Time–Dependent Probabilities in Japan

Mahdyiar, M., Y. Rong, B.Shen-Tu, and J. Guin

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Building Damage Survey of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Application to Risk Modeling

Lai, T., P. Towashiraporn, and T. Han

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Corner Frequency Ratios of P and S Waves and Strain Drops of Earthquakes

Yang, Wenzheng, and Yehuda Ben-Zion

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Magnitude Problems in Historical Earthquake Catalogues and Their Impact on Seismic Hazard Assessment

Rong, Yufang, Mehrdad Mahdyiar, Bingming Shen-Tu, and Khosrow Shabestari

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Mesoscale convective system surface pressure anomalies responsible for meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast on June 13th, 2013

Wertman, Christina A., Richard M.Yablonsky, Yang Shen, John Merrill, Christopher R. Kincaid, and Robert A. Pockalny

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Reliability-Based Topology Optimization of Uncertain Building Systems Subject to Stochastic Excitation

Bobby, Sarah, Arthriya Suksuwan, Seymour M. J. Spence, and Ahsan Kareem

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Risk-Based Bridge Component Importance Measures under Seismic Loads

Vishnu, Navya, Jamie E. Padgett, Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio

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Seismic Fragility Analysis: Application to Simple Linear and Nonlinear Systems

Kafali, C, and M. Grigoriu

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Seismic Response Prediction and Modeling Considerations for Curved and Skewed Concrete Box-Girder Bridges

Ramanathan, Karthik, Jong-Su Jeon, Behzad Zakeri, Reginald DesRoches, and Jamie E. Padgett

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Survey of Damage Extent and Severity of Christchurch Earthquakes for Regional Risk Assessment

Lai, T., A. Nasseri, and F. Turner

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Temporal Evolution of Seismic Fragility Curves for Concrete Box-Girder Bridges in California

Ramanathan, Karthik, Jamie E. Padgett, and Reginald DesRoches

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The Tectonic Crustal Stress Field and Style of Faulting along the Pacific North America Plate Boundary in Southern California

Yang, W., and E. Hauksson

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Inland Flood

Below are papers that address inland flood concerns

A Building Inventory Database for Coastlines at Risk

Gol-Zaroudi, Hamzeh, Russell Winans, and Cheryl Hayes

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New Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

Keshtpoor, Mohammad, Iacopo Carnacina, and Richard M. Yablonsky

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New View of Flood Frequency Incorporating Duration

Feng, Yilu, Kaye L. Brubaker, and Richard H. McCuen

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Speeding up Risk Analyses of U.S. Flood Insurance Loss Data Using the Diffusion Map

Lee, Chia Ying, Rafał Wójcik, Charlie Wusuo Liu, and Jayanta Guin

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Severe thunderstorm

Below are papers that address severe thunderstorm concerns

A three-dimensional six-degree-of-freedom windborne debris trajectory model for tornadoes

Abdelhady, Ahmed U., Seymour M. J. Spence, and Jason McCormick

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Atlanta Tornado Loss Shows Hurricanes Aren't the Only Big Windstorm Threat

Kafali, C., and V. Katiyar

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Insights into Building Damage and Vulnerability from the Recent Severe Thunderstorm Outbreaks: Analyses of Post-Damage Surveys and Insurance Claims Data

Dagnew, A., J. Luo and C. Kafali

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Number of Warning Information Sources and Decision Making during Tornadoes

Luo, J., Cong, Z., and Liang, D.

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Catastrophe modeling methodology

Below are papers that address catastrophe modeling methodology

Application of MCEER Fragility-Based Decision Support Methodology to a Benchmark Hospital

Kafali, C.,, M. Grigoriu, and and G.P.Cimellaro.

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Component Level Framework for Developing Storm Surge Damage Functions for Application in Catastrophe Models

Ramanathan, K., and C. Kafali

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Developing a Global Method for Normalizing Economic Loss From Natural Disasters

Alstadt, Brian, Anthony Hanson, and Austin Nijhuis

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Direct and Hierarchical Models for Aggregating Spatially Dependent Catastrophe Risks

Rafał Wójcik, Charlie Wusuo Liu, Jayanta Guin

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Ensemble-Based Characterization of Uncertain Environmental Features

Wójcik, Rafał, Dennis McLaughlin, Seyed Hamed Alemohammad, and Dara Entekhabi

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Incorporating Uncertainty in Ground Motion and Local Windspeed Calculations into Loss Estimation Calculations

Lloyd, T., S. Latchman, and I. Dima

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Split Atom Convolution for Probabilistic Aggregation of Catastrophe Losses

Rafał Wójcik, Charlie Wusuo Liu, and Jayanta Guin

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Using Intraclass Correlation Coefficients to Quantify Spatial Variability of Catastrophe Model Error

Baldvin Einarsson, Rafał Wójcik, and Jayanta Guin

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Wind

Below are papers that address wind concerns

Effect of assembly construction on the wind induced pressure of membrane roofs

Mauricio, Appupillai Baskaran, Changda Feng, and Arindam Gan Chowdhury

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Enhanced Remote-Sensing Scale for Wind Damage Assessment

Luo, J., D. Liang, C. Kafali, R. Li, and T. M. Brown

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Experimental Assessment of Wind Loads on Roof-to-Wall Connections for Residential Buildings

Feng, Changda, Arindam Gan Chowdhury, Amal Elawady, Dejiang Chen, Ziad Azzi, and Krishna Sai Vutukuru

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Transient Cross-Wind Aerodynamic Loads on a Generic Vehicle due to Bora Gusts

Kozmar, H., K. Butler, A. Kareem

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Don't see the topic you're looking for?

Please see our other research publications related to severe thunderstorm, agriculture, and more!

A Comprehensive Hazard Assessment of the Caribbean Region

Zimmerman, Megan Torpey, Bingming Shen-Tu, Khosrow Shabestari, and Mehrdad Mahdyiar

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Danger Lurks in Europe's Forests

Kafali, C.

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Measurements and Analysis of Criteria Pollutants in New Delhi, India

Aneja, Viney P., A. Agarwal, Paul A. Roelle, Sharon B. Phillips, Quansong Tong, Nealson Watkins, and Richard Yablonsky

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Modeling the Potential Impact of Catastrophic Weather on Crop Insurance Industry Portfolio Losses

Vergara, O., G. Zuba, T. Doggett, and J. Seaquist

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North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study: Resilient Adaptation to Increasing Risk

United States Army Corps of Engineers (Panel Members: Bill Coulbourne, Frank L. Headen, Chris Jones, Andrew Kennedy, Michael Pagano, Karthik Ramanathan, Spencer Rogers, Jim Soucy, and Jack Young)

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Response of Linear Systems to Stationary Band-Limited Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Processes

Grigoriu, M., and C. Kafali

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Road transportation network hazard sustainability and resilience: correlations and comparisons

Vishnu, Navya, Sabarethinam Kameshwar, and Jamie E. Padgett

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Static and Kinetic Coefficients of Friction for Rigid Blocks

Kafali, C., S.Fathali,M. Grigoriu, and A. Whittaker

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System Performance Under Multi-Hazard Environments

Kafali, C., and M. Grigoriu

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Research Publications from the Extreme Event Solutions team

Tropical Cyclone

A Framework for the Probabilistic Quantification of the Resilience of Communities to Hurricane Winds

A Methodology for Estimating Typhoon Losses to Building Environment in Japan

A Resilience-Based Assessment of the Performance of Residential Communities Subject to Hurricane Hazard

An Investigation into Aggregate vs. Occurrence Losses for European Extra-Tropical Cyclones

Community Support and Transition of Research to Operations for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Cyclone Risk from Wind, Flood and Storm Surge Perils in Australia: A Comprehensive Model

Description and Analysis of the Ocean Component of NOAA’s Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF)

Impact of a Warm Ocean Eddy’s Circulation on Hurricane-Induced Sea Surface Cooling with Implications for Hurricane Intensity

Improving the Ocean Initialization of Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Models Using Feature-Based Data Assimilation

Insured Loss Estimation from Wind and Storm Surge for a Re–Occurrence of Typhoon Vera

Limitation of One-Dimensional Ocean Models for Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Model Forecasts

Ocean Modeling with Flexible Initialization for Improved Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Model Prediction

On the Relationship between North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk

Probability of Hurricane Intensification and United States Hurricane Landfall under Conditions of Elevated Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Realizing Hurricane Resilient Communities through Distributed Computing

Risk and fragility assessment of residential wooden buildings subject to hurricane winds

Simulation of Rain Penetration and Associated Damage in Buildings within a Hurricane Vulnerability Model

The Impact of Temporal and Spatial Variation in Building Codes on the Hurricane Wind Vulnerability of Residential Single Family Homes

The Importance of the Precipitation Mass Sink in Tropical Cyclones and Other Heavily Precipitating Systems

The Role of Tropical Cyclone Induced Flooding in Economic and Insurance Losses

Uncertainty Quantification for a Climatology of the Frequency and Spatial Distribution of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Earthquake

A Study on the Uncertainties in Earthquake Time–Dependent Probabilities in Japan

Building Damage Survey of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Application to Risk Modeling

Corner Frequency Ratios of P and S Waves and Strain Drops of Earthquakes

Magnitude Problems in Historical Earthquake Catalogues and Their Impact on Seismic Hazard Assessment

Mesoscale convective system surface pressure anomalies responsible for meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast on June 13th, 2013

Reliability-Based Topology Optimization of Uncertain Building Systems Subject to Stochastic Excitation

Risk-Based Bridge Component Importance Measures under Seismic Loads

Seismic Fragility Analysis: Application to Simple Linear and Nonlinear Systems

Seismic Response Prediction and Modeling Considerations for Curved and Skewed Concrete Box-Girder Bridges

Survey of Damage Extent and Severity of Christchurch Earthquakes for Regional Risk Assessment

Temporal Evolution of Seismic Fragility Curves for Concrete Box-Girder Bridges in California

The Tectonic Crustal Stress Field and Style of Faulting along the Pacific North America Plate Boundary in Southern California

Inland Flood

A Building Inventory Database for Coastlines at Risk

New Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

New View of Flood Frequency Incorporating Duration

Speeding up Risk Analyses of U.S. Flood Insurance Loss Data Using the Diffusion Map

Severe thunderstorm

A three-dimensional six-degree-of-freedom windborne debris trajectory model for tornadoes

Atlanta Tornado Loss Shows Hurricanes Aren't the Only Big Windstorm Threat

Insights into Building Damage and Vulnerability from the Recent Severe Thunderstorm Outbreaks: Analyses of Post-Damage Surveys and Insurance Claims Data

Number of Warning Information Sources and Decision Making during Tornadoes

Catastrophe modeling methodology

Application of MCEER Fragility-Based Decision Support Methodology to a Benchmark Hospital

Component Level Framework for Developing Storm Surge Damage Functions for Application in Catastrophe Models

Developing a Global Method for Normalizing Economic Loss From Natural Disasters

Direct and Hierarchical Models for Aggregating Spatially Dependent Catastrophe Risks

Ensemble-Based Characterization of Uncertain Environmental Features

Incorporating Uncertainty in Ground Motion and Local Windspeed Calculations into Loss Estimation Calculations

Split Atom Convolution for Probabilistic Aggregation of Catastrophe Losses

Using Intraclass Correlation Coefficients to Quantify Spatial Variability of Catastrophe Model Error

Wind

Effect of assembly construction on the wind induced pressure of membrane roofs

Enhanced Remote-Sensing Scale for Wind Damage Assessment

Experimental Assessment of Wind Loads on Roof-to-Wall Connections for Residential Buildings

Transient Cross-Wind Aerodynamic Loads on a Generic Vehicle due to Bora Gusts

Don't see the topic you're looking for?

A Comprehensive Hazard Assessment of the Caribbean Region

Danger Lurks in Europe's Forests

Measurements and Analysis of Criteria Pollutants in New Delhi, India

Modeling the Potential Impact of Catastrophic Weather on Crop Insurance Industry Portfolio Losses

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study: Resilient Adaptation to Increasing Risk

Response of Linear Systems to Stationary Band-Limited Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Processes

Road transportation network hazard sustainability and resilience: correlations and comparisons

Static and Kinetic Coefficients of Friction for Rigid Blocks

System Performance Under Multi-Hazard Environments

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